莱斯特.布朗是美国地球政策研究所的所长，他在中国很有名，因为当年曾经说过中国养不活这么多人口，从而会给世界带来黄祸；然后又说中国即使能生产那么多粮食，也没有足够的水去浇灌庄稼。这些言论都在学术、经济、政治领域引起了巨大争议。他的书《B模式》还被翻译成中文了。有兴趣的可以去看看。
最近，布朗在《财富》杂志撰文指出一个问题，"The echanol boom is starting to cut into the world's grain supply"，意思是说，乙醇燃料的生产会影响世界粮食供给。他这篇的文章的题目还很吓人，叫"Appetite for Destruction"，指的就是这个“能够摧毁世界的胃口”。乙醇燃料的生产需要很多玉米等粮食作物作为原材料，于是乙醇燃料的发展会侵占很多粮食资源，从而会影响粮食供给。他说，即使全美国的作物都用来生产乙醇，都不足以满足美国1/6的汽车燃油供应。所以他觉得这种替代能源很危险。可行的办法应该是提高能源效率，并且发展混合动力车和电动汽车（使用风能发电）。
我估计这种争议可能要持续一段时间，现在双方都只是各执一词，很难说服另一方。中国有一个院士就曾经就这个问题提出意见，支持在保障粮食安全的前提下，推动生物质能的发展。他对生物质能引起粮食安全的问题比较乐观，原因有两个。第一，生物质能的原料不一定非要是主食作物，可以是甘蔗、秸秆等；第二，中国有大量边际土地，这些土地如果不用来种植生物质能原材料作物，也只能作为荒地丢弃。他的观点似乎也有道理。
------------------- 以下是这篇文章的全文
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/08/21/8383659/index.htm
Ethanol could leave the world hungry
One tankful of the latest craze in alternative energy could feed one person for a year, Lester Brown tells Fortune.
By Lester Brown
August 16 2006: 5:39 AM EDT
(Fortune Magazine) -- The growing myth that corn is a cure-all for our energy woes is leading us toward a potentially dangerous global fight for food. While crop-based ethanol -the latest craze in alternative energy - promises a guilt-free way to keep our gas tanks full, the reality is that overuse of our agricultural resources could have consequences even more drastic than, say, being deprived of our SUVs. It could leave much of the world hungry.
We are facing an epic competition between the 800 million motorists who want to protect their mobility and the two billion poorest people in the world who simply want to survive. In effect, supermarkets and service stations are now competing for the same resources.
More from FORTUNE
HP lights the privacy powder keg
Apple unveils its latest arsenal
What is Google's second act?
FORTUNE 500
Current Issue
Subscribe to Fortune
More about bio-fuels
Why Wal-Mart wants to sell ethanol
E85 is available at only a tiny fraction of gas stations. But the giant retailer is poised to change that. (more)
Manure mountains to fuel ethanol plant
One company's drive to locate domestic sources of energy is taking a turn into the barnyard. (more)
Soybeans that give you gas
Argentina is a prime market for making and selling renewable biodiesel fuel thanks to cheap land and labor, as well as bumper crops of soybeans. (more)
This year cars, not people, will claim most of the increase in world grain consumption. The problem is simple: It takes a whole lot of agricultural produce to create a modest amount of automotive fuel.
The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with ethanol, for instance, could feed one person for a year. If today's entire U.S. grain harvest were converted into fuel for cars, it would still satisfy less than one-sixth of U.S. demand.
Worldwide increase in grain consumption
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that world grain consumption will increase by 20 million tons this year, roughly 1%. Of that, 14 million tons will be used to fuel cars in the U.S., leaving only six million tons to cover the world's growing food needs.
Already commodity prices are rising. Sugar prices have doubled over the past 18 months (driven in part by Brazil's use of sugar cane for fuel), and world corn and wheat prices are up one-fourth so far this year.
For the world's poorest people, many of whom spend half or more of their income on food, rising grain prices can quickly become life threatening.
Once stimulated solely by government subsidies, biofuel production is now being driven largely by the runaway price of oil. Many food commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and sugar cane, can be converted into fuel; thus the food and energy economies are beginning to merge.
The market is setting the price for farm commodities at their oil-equivalent value. As the price of oil climbs, so will the price of food.
In some U.S. Cornbelt states, ethanol distilleries are taking over the corn supply. In Iowa, 25 ethanol plants are operating, four are under construction, and another 26 are planned.
Iowa State University economist Bob Wisner observes that if all those plants are built, distilleries would use the entire Iowa corn harvest. In South Dakota, ethanol distilleries are already claiming over half that state's crop.
The key to lessening demand for grain is to commercialize ethanol production from cellulosic materials such as switchgrass or poplar trees, a prospect that is at least five years away.
Malaysia, the leading exporter of palm oil, is emerging as the biofuel leader in Asia. But after approving 32 biodiesel refineries within the past 15 months, it recently suspended further licensing while it assesses the adequacy of its palm oil supplies. Fast-rising global demand for palm oil for both food and biodiesel purposes, coupled with rising domestic needs, has the government concerned that there will not be enough to go around.
Less costly alternatives
There are truly guilt-free alternatives to using food-based fuels. The equivalent of the 3% of U.S. automotive fuel supplies coming from ethanol could be achieved several times over - and at a fraction of the cost - by raising auto fuel-efficiency standards by 20%. (Unfortunately Detroit has resisted this, preferring to produce flex-fuel vehicles that will burn either gasoline or ethanol.)
Or what if we shifted to gas-electric hybrid plug-in cars over the next decade, powering short-distance driving, such as the daily commute or grocery shopping, with electricity?
By investing not in hundreds of wind farms, as we now are, but rather in thousands of them to feed cheap electricity into the grid, the U.S. could have cars running primarily on wind energy, and at the gasoline equivalent of less than $1 a gallon.
Clearly, solutions exist. The world desperately needs a strategy to deal with the emerging food-fuel battle. As the world's leading grain producer and exporter, as well as its largest producer of ethanol, the U.S. is in the driver's seat.
Lester R. Brown is president of the Earth Policy Institute and author of "Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble."
你可以使用这个链接引用该篇文章 http://publishblog.blogchina.com/blog/tb.b?diaryID=5699111